Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.022690 2.141095 2.265534 2.406537 2.562455 2.730261 2.925421
2025-08-31 1.848700 2.012481 2.192858 2.407955 2.659772 2.948190 3.307919
2025-09-07 1.744472 1.935618 2.153074 2.422049 2.750572 3.145394 3.666563
2025-09-14 1.640464 1.845369 2.084042 2.387416 2.770168 3.247974 3.908701
2025-09-21 1.554063 1.767530 2.020969 2.350430 2.777604 3.328657 4.122938
2025-09-28 1.477305 1.695422 1.958486 2.306946 2.769382 3.383204 4.301429
2025-10-05 1.445974 1.676285 1.959028 2.341697 2.863486 3.580068 4.702004
2025-10-12 1.419298 1.660679 1.961918 2.377947 2.960138 3.786804 5.142269
2025-10-19 1.392060 1.642382 1.959439 2.405483 3.044936 3.982221 5.590469
2025-10-26 1.352158 1.605581 1.930283 2.393779 3.071208 4.090223 5.906708
2025-11-02 1.315209 1.570849 1.901859 2.380749 3.093427 4.192232 6.225346
2025-11-09 1.275937 1.531390 1.865087 2.353382 3.091373 4.253867 6.477501
2025-11-16 1.238476 1.493554 1.829671 2.327089 3.090618 4.319911 6.754274
2025-11-23 1.213054 1.470920 1.814117 2.328697 3.133058 4.462252 7.208546
2025-11-30 1.193316 1.455094 1.807084 2.342044 3.194367 4.642569 7.778084
2025-12-07 1.159974 1.419489 1.770734 2.309251 3.177992 4.681589 8.042533
2025-12-14 1.127869 1.384598 1.734114 2.274213 3.155399 4.706599 8.279206
2025-12-21 1.095593 1.348555 1.694641 2.232994 3.119788 4.703713 8.448354
2025-12-28 1.087551 1.345911 1.702942 2.265937 3.211947 4.954196 9.313521
2026-01-04 1.080302 1.344018 1.712054 2.300282 3.308635 5.224980 10.319454
2026-01-11 1.071010 1.338855 1.716019 2.326360 3.392271 5.479480 11.371867
2026-01-18 1.051924 1.319146 1.697667 2.315278 3.407460 5.590278 12.020604
2026-01-25 1.033385 1.299726 1.679099 2.302937 3.419342 5.695007 12.688450